Obesity, glucose intolerance, advanced age, and lymphocytopenia are independent risk factors for oxygen requirement in Japanese patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

At the current time of rising demand for hospital beds, it is important to triage COVID-19 patients according to the treatment needed during hospitalization. The need for oxygen therapy is an important factor determining hospital admission of these patients. Our retrospective study was designed to identify risk factors associated with the progression to oxygen requirement in COVID-19 patients. A total of 133 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were admitted to our hospital from February 22, 2020, to August 23. After excluding asymptomatic, non-Japanese, pediatric, pregnant patients and also those who needed oxygen immediately at admission, data of the remaining 84 patients were analyzed. The patients were separated into those who required oxygen after admission and those who did not, and their characteristics were compared. Age, body mass index (BMI), lymphocyte count, C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase, estimated glomerular filtration rate, glucose intolerance, hypertension, and dyslipidemia were significantly different between the two groups. Multivariate analysis identified four significant and independent risk factors of oxygen requirement, including advanced age, obesity, glucose intolerance and lymphocytopenia. Dividing the patients into subgroups according to the number of these risk factors found in each patient indicated that the need for oxygen increased with higher number of these risk factors in the same individual. Our results suggest that the presence of higher number of these risk factors in COVID-19 patients is associated with future oxygen requirement and that this index can be potentially useful in triaging COVID-19 patients staying home in the context of need for hospitalization.

Early clinical factors predicting the development of critical disease in Japanese patients with COVID-19: A single-center, retrospective, observational study.

The factors predicting the progression of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) from mild to moderate to critical are unclear. We retrospectively evaluated risk factors for disease progression in Japanese patients with COVID-19. Seventy-four patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were hospitalized in our hospital between February 20, 2020, and June 10, 2020. We excluded asymptomatic, non-Japanese, and pediatric patients. We divided patients into the stable group and the progression group (PG; requiring mechanical ventilation). We compared the clinical factors. We established the cutoff values (COVs) for significantly different factors via receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and identified risk factors by univariate regression. We enrolled 57 patients with COVID-19 (median age 52 years, 56.1% male). The median time from symptom onset to admission was 8 days. Seven patients developed critical disease (PG: 12.2%), two (3.5%) of whom died; 50 had stable disease. Univariate logistic analysis identified an elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level (COV: 309 U/l), a decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; COV: 68 ml/min), lymphocytopenia (COV: 980/µl), and statin use as significantly associated with disease progression. However, in the Cox proportional hazards analysis, lymphocytopenia at admission was not significant. We identified three candidate risk factors for progression to critical COVID-19 in adult Japanese patients: statin use, elevated LDH level, and decreased eGFR.